Summary of the Iraqi situation


Today, Iraq is living in a state of charged political stagnation in the shadow of a foggy situation over the Iraqi street. More than six months have passed since the parliamentary elections and after the results were announced, the parameters of the next government are still unknown, what many see as a bad omen in the coming days.

In short, the situation in which the country is living today is not a product of the moment, nor is it the product of the current circumstance only, but it carries within it many previous failures as well as the foundations that were built wrong, and the evidence for this is that the two most important elements of the system of government in the country represented in the constitution and institutions suffer from severe weakness In its main structure,

The constitution was written in confusing and unstable circumstances and according to the requirements of the interest at that time, and the institutions were restructured according to the partisan map of political alliances. They are no longer real institutions that work for the country, but are political and partisan quotas, and perhaps these two reasons are the basis of what the situation has reached today.

As for the axes on the ground today, they are listed, if you will, in the following way:

1- The inability of any of the political forces present on the ground to form the two-thirds plus in order to be able to form the government without the need for the blocking third.

2- The absence of any signs of agreement between the Shiite forces until this moment, despite the repetition of the scenario in previous elections, but it eventually resulted in an agreement between these forces. The current government and the formation of the government within 15 days, where he stressed that the Alliance to Save a Homeland is the largest bloc and that the reason for the delay in forming the government is to activate the blocking third, which predicts until the moment that no real agreement has been reached between the Shiite forces.

3- As for the Sunni forces, they suffer from fragmentation that appeared clearly in the previous period, specifically after the return of Sunni figures who were either outside the country or in prisons to the political scene, which makes it difficult to agree all these faces on the ground, even if these personalities do not have real weight. But in the end, this maneuver will bear fruit, even after a while.

4- With regard to the Kurdish forces, for the first time we see a clear disagreement and an open division among them with regard to the central government, and the matter became clearer with the negotiations we see individually for the Kurdish forces with the central government.

5- In conclusion, the continuous security breaches in large parts of the country, which take place as a kind of reminder between the parties that each party has the greatest authority in its position, as well as the attempt by the regional neighborhood to impose pressure cards on the ground, which makes the picture in the country the way we see it today.

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Thualfuqar Center for Strategic Studies, Research and Human Rights .... Thualfuqar center is a private, independent research institution concerned with public affairs in Iraq and the effects of its regional and international environment.

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