After contradictory controversies and leaks from conflicting sources inside and outside Iran, about the circumstances of the Iranian president’s plane accident, between the fact that the incident is related to a “conspiracy”, or that the crash of the plane is an accidental incident related to weather conditions and aircraft technologies, a report was issued by the Iranian armed forces that included the results of the “preliminary” investigation into the circumstances of the crash of the Iranian president’s helicopter, and its conclusion that after following the paths of the plane, the approaches of any “conspiracy” in the crash incident were excluded, and the causes of the accident were stated to be related to weather conditions, The report stated that “about a minute and a half before the helicopter accident, the pilot of the helicopter that was involved in the accident communicated with the other two helicopters of the flight group, and no traces of gunshot or similar wounds were observed on the body of the late president’s helicopter, and the commander of the president’s plane communicated with the two helicopters accompanying it, and that the crashed helicopter caught fire after colliding with a mountain height, and due to complications in the area, fog and low temperature, the search operation extended throughout the night, and On Monday morning (at 5 am), with the assistance of Iranian drones, the precise location was identified and the wreckage of the late president’s helicopter was found The report concluded that there were no suspicious incidents in the air traffic control conversations with the flight crew.
The report of the Iranian Armed Forces, in terms of its importance, remains an initial report Subsequent reports are expected to be issued regarding this report, which may either contradict or fully or partially agree with its contents It is worth noting that these subsequent reports will be issued by committees affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its intelligence agencies It is also observed that the Armed Forces report may have intended to refute any accusations of negligence towards the Iranian army by emphasizing the safety of communications and monitoring, as well as the successful use of an Iranian drone to reach the site of the crashed plane This is in response to claims that a Turkish drone equipped with night vision was the one that located the plane’s crash site and reached it, in addition to denying rumors about the plane being shot down The report did not address leaks suggesting that a bomb from within the plane exploded
And although the hypothesis that the plane crash was an accidental incident based on weather conditions and the rugged terrain seems logical and is supported by the military report, lingering questions still support the approach that there may be an internal or external conspiracy Among these questions: the separation of the accompanying helicopters from the president’s helicopter and their different fate, the time it took to reach the plane wreckage, and the fact that the plane came from Azerbaijan, which has close security and military relations with Israel.Through it, the government of Azerbaijan granted facilities to Israel to establish military bases on Azerbaijani territory. In addition, the record of assassinations and liquidations carried out by Israel against Iranian and IRGC leaders inside and outside Iran makes the hypothesis that Israel is behind the operation a logical hypothesis, and in our assessment that saying that the Iranian arena is “infiltrated” by Israel through technical and human sources has become a reality that goes beyond mere hypotheses and analysis based on evidence and indicators.
Internally, it was clear that the Iranian leadership was confused since the start of the announcement of the plane crash through the issuance of many accounts from official or semi-official sources, characterized by inconsistency and contradiction, and it was clear that it wanted to gain time to prepare Iranian public opinion to deal with the tragedy and export a new coherent narrative, perhaps starting with the report of the Iranian army, but the Iranian narrative, whatever its essence and level of conviction in its credibility, but it is not possible to exclude a history of liquidations for Iranian presidents since the Islamic Revolution , and conflicts within the institutions of the Iranian regime may increase at most levels of leadership “between the army and the Revolutionary Guards, within the parliament, between the presidency and the office of the Supreme Leader, and between the intelligence of the Revolutionary Guards and other security services and within these services,” not to mention deep and declared differences between the hardliners and reformists, but the most prominent of these conflicts is the struggle to succeed the Supreme Leader of the Revolution (Ali Khamenei), and that Raisi is one of the most prominent candidates along with (Mojtaba) bin Ali Khamenei, who is referred to as The de facto ruler of Iran, and that he stands behind the exclusions of his rivals by assassination, imprisonment or exile, to open the way for him to be his father’s successor as Supreme Leader.
Despite the multiplicity of scenarios for how the Iranian leadership will overcome the crisis of losing the Iranian president, the Iranian leadership is likely to go in two directions:
First: Closing the file of controversy over the incident and its circumstances through reports that will be issued later to close the crisis file that include confirming the narrative of the accidental incident related to weather conditions, because the Iranian leadership, which has a list of drones, nuclear, missiles and space programs, is living in a state of exposure that strikes the credibility of all these programs, and because accusing Israel or America of being behind the operation will result in Iran responding to the operation, which Iran does not want at this stage.
second : Devoting time to the upcoming presidential elections under time pressure. The office of the Supreme Leader will fully focus on these elections, ensuring his continued control over the presidency with a loyal candidate However, without overshadowing the scene as was done by Raisi,as the nature of the Iranian regime under the control of the Supreme Leader does not tolerate personalities like Raisi and Qasem Soleimani.
Here, reference is made to the accumulated expertise of the Supreme Leader, his office, and his agencies in managing elections and sorting results before conducting them