Summary about the Iranian and Iranian-allied factions’ reaction to the assassination of a prominent figure such as Ismail Haniyeh:
It may take several forms, including:
1. Increased military attacks: Factions such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad may resort to intensifying their attacks against Israel, whether by launching missiles or ground attacks.
2. Qualitative retaliatory operations: Factions may carry out qualitative operations targeting strategic Israeli sites or important figures.
3. Political and diplomatic escalation: The international arena may witness an escalation in political and diplomatic discourse, with attempts to mobilize international support against Israel, which will create pressure that may lead to a rapid escalation from the Israeli side to resolve the war file.
4. Strengthening alliances: The incident may lead to strengthening alliances between the various factions and the countries supporting them, such as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, which increases military and field coordination, and expands the scope of the current conflict.
5. Escalation on the Lebanese front: Hezbollah may open a new front with Israel in southern Lebanon as part of the response, which could extend to Syria and Iraq and the entry of factions there into the arena.
6. Electronic warfare: The factions may resort to intensifying electronic attacks on Israeli infrastructure.
All of these scenarios depend on the extent of the political and military repercussions and the ability to implement actual responses on the ground.
There is no doubt that the coming days will witness an unprecedented acceleration of events on the ground, in light of the efforts of all parties to the conflict to resolve the files on the battlefield before a new president enters the White House.