The change in the Iraqi situation after assigning Mustafa Al-Kazemi

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Mustafa Al-Kazemi took over as a prime minister of Iraq with an external support from the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and locally from different and responsible forces, the most important of which were:

1- The Sadrist movement headed by Muqtada al-Sadr

2- The victory movement headed by Haider al-Abadi

3- The stream of wisdom movement headed by Ammar al-Hakim In addition to a number of moderate Sunni forces and some Kurdish forces, Al-Kazemi after being a prime minister started with an important changes on the political, security and military levels, in addition to trying to find solutions for the economic, services, and financial sectors, especially after the massive decline in global oil prices at the beginning of his assumption of power, where Iraq in general rely on its oil sales to finance its budget. The government received a heavy legacy for the mistakes and corruption of successive governments in the country, especially since it came after the notorious Adel Abdul Mahdi government, which was known for its corruption and the clear acquiescence of the influential forces parties and the militias that is loyal to Iran, The beginning of Al-Kazemi’s reforms to confront the current opposing party that is supported by Iran was to rearrange the security sector, as it assigned a number of important positions to people known for their experience, competence,balance and accepted by a large segment in the Iraqi street, including:

1- Lieutenant General Abdel Wahab Al-Saadi as a head of the Counter-Terrorism Service (popularly accepted for his participation in the liberation operations against ISIS and for being a competent leader).

2- Lieutenant General Abdul Ghani Al-Asadi, Director of the National Security Agency, considered to be a distinguished and moderate military figure.

3- Lieutenant General- Othman Al-Ghanmi, Minister of the Interior, and he is a distinguished and moderate military figure.

4- Qasim Al-Araji is a national security advisor, and despite his affiliation with the Badr Organization, he has a moderate personality and a good security capabilities.

5- The Lieutenant General Jumma Anad as Minister of Defense, and he is a moderate figure, but not strong enough to manage the Ministry of Defense in light of the current circumstances and the expected confrontations in the future, in addition to the strength of the Army Chief of Staff Abdul Amir Yar Allah, who has a strong military personality, in addition to his close ties with the leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces and their support for him.

6- Lieutenant General Abdul Amir Al-Shammari as head of the Joint Operations Department. He has moderate figure in addition to a good military and security experience.

7- The Intelligence Service, which was the previous position for Al-Kazemi, remained under his supervision and management , in addition to some good number of officers where their loyalty is to Al-Kazemi including to a very well-trained special military forces. The intelligence service has been tasked with collecting an adequate, accurate information, high-confidential security and intelligence follow-ups for a large number of state cadres with unlimited support and wide powers. Al-Kazemi relies heavily on the Counter-Terrorism Service for being the least penetrating security and military services due to its establishment and supervision by the American side and working on it being A strong military security force that possesses high expertise and techniques, good weapons and high tactical capabilities that enable it to deal with any target in various environments and work methods, and the appointment of Al-Saadi as head of the agency was an important addition to the intelligence service. Al-Kazemi faces great and fierce opposition and severe hostile situations by the armed militias, part of it under the cover of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which have great influence in all the country’s facilities and at all levels, which they are led by a group of influential people, including:

1- Hadi Al-Ameri, head of the Badr Organization

2- Qais Khazali, head of the League of the Righteous

3- Hezbollah

4- Al-Nujaba Movement

5- Al-Maliki In addition to about 40 medium and small armed factions, and they owe full allegiance to the Wali al-Faqih in Iran, with direct support and funding from the Revolutionary Guard. In the first significant operation on the road to fulfilling the promises made by Al-Kazemi upon his assumption of power, the Counter-Terrorism Service carried out a raid on a barracks belonging to Hezbollah south of Baghdad and arrested the elements present in the barracks due to the presence of explosive materials, Katechua missiles and information indicating that this barracks is the one responsible for the attacks with Katechua missiles on The American embassy in the Green Zone. a strong response came later from Hezbollah by attacking the Green Zone and taking control on the CTS headquarters in response to the arrest of its members and raided one of its headquarters, demanding the release of the detained elements, despite the direct order from Al-Kazemi to Lieutenant General Tahseen Al-Aboudi, nicknamed “Abu Montazer Al-Husseini.” The official for the protection of the Green Zone by confronting the attacking force and preventing it from entering, the direct order of Al-Kazemi was disobeyed. Thus, Al-Kazemi lost the first round of his war against the influential parties and militias at his country, which is loyal to the Wali al-Faqih, and lost the confidence of a large number of Iraqis looking for change. The important question is why the Americans left Al-Kazemi in this situation that damaged the image of his government and its ability to change the reality that Iraq is going through, On a parallel line, Al-Kazemi, under the supervision of the American side, keeps track of all the money that was spent on the budget from 2005 to the present, of which nothing little has been implemented, and began to seize the funds of some suspicious small and medium Iraqi banks, which are sub-owned by influential party figures and apparently by people who are a figures For financial and commercial interfaces to implement the agendas of the real owners and some so-called businessmen of the second and third class, Al-Kazemi faces a major challenge, which is the holding of parliamentary elections in June 2021 under the current circumstances, which are expected to worsen the outcome of the open confrontation with the parties and militias, which may lead to a major internal clash that may lead to a major consequences because of Iran’s unwillingness to hold early elections under the supervision of the United Nations. Al-Kazemi’s visit to Iran was accompanied by imposing decisions and opinions on the person of Al-Kazemi. The last meeting that took place at Hadi Al-Amiri’s house and in the presence of pro-Iranian personalities came with the same tone, We are waiting for his visit to the United States and his meeting with President Trump, which will determine the path and the way of Al-Kazemi, which are supposed to result in real and practical steps that are effective in the Iraqi scene and at all levels, and if the Americans do not take real steps to support Al-Kazemi, he will fail to change and implement the plan. The next stage is the stage of a Shii’e Shii’ie struggle, because the Sunni forces do not have any decision, but rather the dependency for their personal interests and the influence of the Shii’ie parties on them, with the exception of some moderate national figures and they are weak and cannot do anything. but the Kurds are clear, their position, their interests, their personal gains, and their financial gains are above Iraq and there is no National motives towards building the country and the trend of secession and independence from Iraq is still constant and remains unchanged, although there are very big problems between the two Kurdish parties. The Kurdian support to Al Kazemi still depends on what Alkazemi will provide for them according to their personal interests. Either financial or to let go of some lands of conflicts between Iraq and Kurdistan. In light of the foregoing, we see that Iraq is undoubtedly on the verge of major crises and problems in the political, security and military aspects, as well as the financial aspects under the authority of sectarian parties, impudent militias, uncontrolled weapons, and the lethal rampant corruption that has lost the state and its prestige, Al-Kazemi will have a difficult task, risks, and great challenges to improve the situation in Iraq.

 

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Thualfuqar Center for Strategic Studies, Research and Human Rights .... Thualfuqar center is a private, independent research institution concerned with public affairs in Iraq and the effects of its regional and international environment.

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